Finishing the first month of the flat season in profit was lovely. I'm back with 4 tips for Wednesday’s action, 2 on the flat and 2 bets over the jumps.
12:00 Southwell — Novice Handicap Chase
It took Nineohtwooneoh six starts to get off the mark over hurdles, but when breaking his maiden tag he did it in emphatic style. He performed like a horse who had plenty left in the tank.
He looked to follow that result up Tanton, he got caught out by heavy ground and also hung badly in the closing stages. I’m hoping that the return to a faster surface and a first go over fences can eke out more improvement in him.
The race seems fairly modest, many of these have had plenty of chances to get their head in front and I think my selection could just be that class above. I think its also key to note that Paul Nicholls doesn’t often send runners to Southwell (bare in mind he’s sent 6 there today) but he has a 50% win ratio in the past 5 years and that is boosted to 60% in the last 10 years.
There is one lurker in the field that I’m going to have E/W and that is Elle Est Grande for Keith Dalgleish. A maiden still but showed some promise over hurdles, notably on her sole start at this distance.
She was beaten 7L ay Ayr to Aurora Thunder but was in receipt of 3lbs, the winner although never going on to win a race placed 2nd on her next 3 starts and got given a rating of 117. If the pair met today instead of having to give 3lbs Elle Est Grande would receive 17lbs.
This switch to fences is unsurprising given she finished 2nd in a PTP leading me to believe there could be more to come.
Selections — Nineohtwooneoh 2/1 1pt Win / Elle Est Grande 16/1 0.5pt E/W
13:50 Musselburgh — Maiden Stakes
When looking at this race I found it hard to split the top 2 on what they have achieved, the difference is one is almost even money and the other Is 7/2.
So I will be taking the price on Innings, he took a big step forward from debut when stepping up in trip too 7f. He finished 4th in a blanket finish and the winner has been given a mark 86 which is 12lbs higher than Gold Zabeel.
The form is beginning to look strong with the 3rd coming out and running at Newmarket, he could only manage 3rd again that day but the 1st and 2nd are rated 89 and 80 respectively.
The 5th ran in what could be a hot race albeit stepping up in trip he managed another 5th behind Magical Morning (92) and some once raced well-bred types. Even the 6th has come out and won.
Selection — Innings 7/2 1pt Win
17:25 Leopardstown — Amethyst Stakes (Group 3)
This won't be an original selection I'm sure but Sinawann looks to be the clear form horse here. I don't rate much else in the field and the selections 6th in the Irish 2000 Guineas is the best form on offer. He was rather keen in the early stages but looked like he would be bang there at the finish.
He was beaten by some classy closers and didn't see the race out strongly. I'm hoping the run will have taken the edge off him for today and he can get his first piece of blacktype.